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"Of that 1.05C temperature departure from pre-industrial [recorded in 2015], roughly 1.0C is due to the anthropogenic forcing, about 0.05C (0.09F) to 0.1C (0.18F) is due to El Niño and about 0.02C (0.04F) is due to higher solar activity."
"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame."
Kam, J. et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S4-S8, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0138.1.
"The findings indicate a "29‐fold increase in the likelihood of setting a record for a hot year in global temperatures in 2016 due to anthropogenic forcings."
King, A., (2017) Earth's Future, 5 (11) 1156-1168, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000611
"According to CMIP5 simulations, the 2016 record global warmth was only possible due to substantial centennial-scale anthropogenic warming. Natural variability made a smaller contribution to the January–December 2016 annual-mean global temperature anomaly."
Knutson, T. et al., (2018) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S11-S15, doi:10.1175/BAMS -D-17-0104.1.
"In more than half of the 10 cases considered here anthropogenic influence results in warm events being 3 times more likely and extreme events 5 times more likely during September 2011–August 2012."
Christidis, N. & Stott, P., (2013) J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00563.1
"We find that this sequence of record‐breaking temperatures had a negligible (<0.03%) likelihood of occurrence in the absence of anthropogenic warming."
Mann, M. et al., (2017) Geophys. Res. Lett., 44 (15), 7936-7944, DOI:10.1002/2017GL074056
"The observations indicate a weak tendency toward shorter dry spell length. However, in contrast to the intensification of heavy precipitation, models suggest that in this case the area with observational data availability is not representative for the total land area, for which the models simulate no discernible change."
Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 547-554, doi:10.1002/2013GL058499
"Anthropogenic forcings alter the regional distributions, indicating that extremely warm days have become hotter."
Christidis, N. et al., (2011) J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1
"We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record‐breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record‐breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence."
King, A. et al., (2016) GRL, 43 (7), 3438-3443 DOI:10.1002/2015GL067448
"Our analysis covers the 1964–2013 period, when the global warming accelerated, and reveals…increasing trends in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes that are highly unlikely under the assumption of stationarity."
Papalexiou, S. M. & Montanari, A. (2019) Water Resources Research, 55(6): 4901-4914, doi:10.1029/2018WR024067
"Examination of simulations with and without anthropogenic forcings provides evidence that the observed changes are more likely to be anthropogenic than nature in origin."
Li, C. et al., (2018) Scientific Reports, 8, 1007, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19288-z
"Therefore, it is concluded that the influence of anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on extreme temperatures that have impacts on human society and natural systems at global and regional scales."
Zwiers, F. et al., (2011) J. Climate, 10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1
"We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area."
Diffenbaugh, N. et al., (2017) PNAS, 114 (19), 4881–4886
"We find that most regions experience increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot three day periods, but anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes locally can decrease these measures of heat waves in some models."
Wehner, M. et al., (2018) Weather and Climate Extremes, 20, 1-8, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.001
"About 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times...About 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming."
Fischer & Knutti, (2015) Nature Climate Change, 5, 560-564
"We demonstrate that the probability distribution of observed local trends across the globe for the period 1960–2010 is clearly different to what would be expected from internal variability. We detect a distinct intensification of heavy precipitation events and hot extremes."
Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 547-554, doi:10.1002/2013GL058499
"Results confirm previous HadEX/CMIP3-based results in which anthropogenic (ANT) signals are robustly detected in the increase in global mean and northern continental regional means of the four indices of extreme temperatures."
Kim, Y-H. et al., (2016) Clim. Dyn., 46 (5–6), 1769–1782
"Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures."
Lehman, J. et al., (2015) Climatic Change, 132 (4), 501–515
"We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85C about 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence."
Fischer, E. & Knutti, R., (2015) Nature Climate Change, 5, 560–564
"Our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed."
Knutson, T. & PLoshay, J., (2016) Climatic Change, 138 (1–2), 25–39
"We demonstrate that the probability distribution of observed local trends across the globe for the period 1960–2010 is clearly different to what would be expected from internal variability. We detect a distinct intensification of heavy precipitation events and hot extremes."
Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 547-554, doi:10.1002/2013GL058499
"Comparing these observations with climate model simulations in an optimal detection analysis shows a significant human influence on patterns of change in extremely warm nights."
Christidis, N. et al., (2005) GRL, 32 (20), DOI:10.1029/2005GL023885
"We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes."
Holland, G. & Bruyère , C. L. (2013) Climate Dynamics, 42: 617-627, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0
"A large part of the observed global‐scale trend in TN90 results from the trend in mean temperature, which has been attributed largely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increase. This suggests that the detected global‐scale trends in the number of warm nights are at least partly anthropogenic."
Morak, S. et al., (2011) GRL, 38 (17)
"The anthropogenic signal is detected in global and northern continental means of all four indices, albeit less robustly for TXx, which is consistent with previous findings."
Min, S-K. et al., (2013) J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1
"Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius."
Froelicher, T. et al., (2018) Nature (560), 360–364
"[The results] imply that ENSO extremes of the last 50 years are significantly stronger than those of the pre‐industrial era in the central tropical Pacific. These records suggest that El Niño events already may be intensifying due to anthropogenic climate change."
Grothe, P. R. et al. 2019 Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2019GL083906
"Analyses that involve signals from anthropogenic and natural external forcings confirm that the anthropogenic signal can be detected over global land as a whole and for most continents in all temperature indices."
Hu, T. et al. 2020 Environmental Research Letters, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8497
"Results indicate that anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence is robustly detected in the observed intensification of extreme precipitation over the global land and most of the subregions considered."
Paik, S. et al. 2020 Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL086875
"We found that external forcing (i.e., greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions) played an important role in the observed TCF [Tropical Cyclone Frequency] trends since 1980."
Murakami, H. et al. 2020 PNAS, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1922500117
"We show that the occurrence probabilities of the duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of most documented, large, and impactful MHWs have increased more than 20-fold as a result of anthropogenic climate change."
Laufkötter, C. et al. 2020 Science, DOI:10.1126/science.aba0690